Treasury Yields Vary

Published November 7, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields rose midweek as markets reacted to the latest economic data for the service industry indicating expansion in October. Yields trended downward toward the end of the week despite the latest job data showing a slight stabilization in the job market.

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for October, indicating growth in the service industry. The PMI measures the change in economic activity in the services sector and is used as an indicator of U.S. economic activity. The PMI for October was 52.4%, up from a PMI of 50.0% in September and above analysts’ forecast of 50.5%.

“October's Services PMI® is a continuation of a downward trend of more than 10 percentage points in the 12-month average since February 2022, when it was 62.6%,” said chair of the ISM survey, Steve Miller. “Respondents continued to mention the impact of tariffs on prices paid. There was no indication of widespread layoffs or reductions in force, but the federal government shutdown was mentioned several times as impacting business activity and generating concerns for future layoffs.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of November 3 at 4.08% and traded as high as 4.17% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.66% and traded as high as 4.75% on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private sector jobs rose in October, indicating a resilient labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private sector businesses added 42,000 jobs in October, rebounding from a previously reported loss of 29,000 jobs in September and surpassing Wall Street’s expectations of an increase of 22,000 jobs. ADP also revised its September estimate, indicating 3,000 fewer jobs lost for that month.

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said chief economist at ADP, Dr. Nela Richardson. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 11/3 at 4.10%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.71%.